The presidential candidates have entered the last straight of the electoral campaigns, and 28 days before the federal elections in Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a 92% chance of winning on July 1, according to the latest survey published by El País.
With just 4 weeks left before Mexicans head to the polling stations, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the candidate of the Juntos Haremos Historia coalition, has accumulated 48% of the voting intention, ahead of 28% for Ricardo Anaya and 20% of the PRI candidate, José Antonio Meade according to El País.
In fact, the Spanish newspaper said that the odds of Anaya being elected president were 9% and Meade, only 1%.
“The advantage of López Obrador is clear. Not even after the two debates that have been held so far have diminished his position in the polls. It is not normal that there is an electoral turnaround that would lose 20 points to the leading candidate, “the newspaper said.
The El País measurement is based on a model that converts probabilistic predictions after studying the historical accuracy of thousands of probes.
“In the case of Mexico, the model assumes an average error of 3.5 points per candidate, which is greater now because there are weeks left until July 1. The margin of error is still around 15 points for a candidate with 40% of votes, “the newspaper said.
Right now, a defeat by López Obrador would be rarer than seeing Cristiano Ronaldo miss a penalty.